Yield curve there are many, such as government bonds, the benchmark yield curve, deposit yield curve, interest rate swaps and credit yield curve yield curve (credit curves) and so on. Benchmark yield curve and other securities on the market of reference, the securities must be consistent with liquidity, size, price, availability, velocity and other characteristics of the standard.

Yield curve is not static, at any time can happen fast changes. For example, the central bank officials in a few words can lead to higher inflation expectations, so that long-term bond prices have fallen faster than short-term bonds.

Under normal circumstances, the yield curve rising from left to right, because the longer term rate of return would be higher to reflect the investment risks and increase with the lengthening period of the case. Of such yield curve, if it increases in long-term yields higher than short-term rate of return, yield curve becomes steeper.

Inversion of the yield curve is a decline from left to right, reflecting the short-term rate of return higher than the long-term rate of return anomalies. This may be because investors expect the inflation rate to decline in the long run, or the supply of bonds will be substantially reduced, both the expected rate of return will be down.
    
    On interest rates, financial commentators often said that the interest rate path, or down, as if every move in interest rates are the same. In fact, if a different year bonds, the interest rate trend will be different, a long period of interest rate and short term interest rate movements can be split. The most important thing is the overall yield curve shape and curve on the economy or market trends in the future inspiration.

Would like to find out interest rates from the yield curve traces of the investors and companies are closely observe the shape of the curve. Yield curve is based, is that you buy in the near future, medium and long-term treasury bonds, the proceeds after the rate of return. Curves allows you to get back in accordance with holders of bonds until the principal amount of the year, to compare bond yields.

The shape of yield curve is based on the straight shaft connected to a different point of Treasury bond yields as well as in the horizontal axis of the bond formed-year point. Now you can see above a bit steep yield curve, in which year bonds yield more than three-month short-term treasury bonds is nearly. The difference between these two types of bonds are usually about, if the difference between the percentage of higher than this, that said the economy is expected to improve in the future.

Steep yield curve in general appeared in pace with the economic recession of the early stage of economic expansion. At this point, economic stagnation and short-term interest rates have been suppressed, but the One once to re-establish the growth of economic activity the demand for capital, and the fear of inflation, interest rates generally began to rise.

Traditionally, the inverted curve, said the economy would soon slow down. Financial institutions such as banks typically borrow short-term interest rates and will be a long-term lending money. Generally speaking, when the long-term rates higher than short-term interest rates and relatively high between the two, in this case, the bank’s loans are usually low. In general, the lower the amount of corporate lending will lead to credit crunch, business is slow, and economic decline.

This is a typical view. The latest case is different, and perhaps more complex than ever. Recent decline in U.S. Treasury long-term bonds issued, and in the past few years, when the first time in budget surpluses over the years in Washington to begin paying some of the long-term bonds have not been paid.

Reduce the long-term bond issuance prompted investors to buy longer-term bonds, and thus raised the long-term bond prices and lowered its rate of return, the question arose inverted curve. Bond prices and yields the opposite direction. However, the year the Federal Reserve interest rate cut carried out radical measures in the case of short-term rates down, return to the traditional increase in yield curve shape.

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The foreign exchange market 24 hours of continuous operation, up or Change, does not stand still. Its trend as the day and night on earth conversion, again and again. Correspondingly, we can be divided into exchange-rate movements of the stock market bottomed, up, building the head and fell four stages. These patterns we can observe the exchange rate charts, such as commonly used to determine the K-line graph.

1, bottomed stage. Exchange rate bottomed shape generally have triple bottom, head and shoulders bottom, double bottom (W end) and the semicircle at the end (bottom), etc.. The bottom of the horizontal area of the larger building, representing the cumulative kinetic energy increases more the greater the rate of rise. At this stage, should be carried out buy low and sell high range operations, such as conservative, the stage may be waived by the profitability of the opportunity and fighting the next phase.

2, up stage. When the exchange rate at the bottom of the neckline break early on the trend indicates an increase in the beginning, and the increase in height is usually at the bottom of the vertical height of the early. This stage as an energetic young man, desperate to live forward setting and ran away, Tiaode Gao, although there is no difficulty as long as the stamina, but a break will be able to set off again, just like the main stage of the rising Quotes, magnitude large and fast, although the continued upward pressure on long But when a little correction as long as the order will be able to immediately re-launch a new round of upside. The initial period of this phase should be to our brave chase the best time to buy. Rising phase is also our main source of profitability.

Third, build the first phase. Is the rise in the late stage. Quotes trend upward again this time attempting to push up but the effort has been exhausted long before the wave can not break through the high points, the final break through the neckline down to the completion of the head and into the fall phase. At this stage, early and long-term pay should be shot, short-term to try to do Kuaijinkuaichu range operations.

4, down stage. And a rising phase as simple as that, but in the opposite direction. At this stage to lose morale and inability to support the exchange rate fell rapidly until the rate of kinetic energy disappears into the bottomed stage. Decline phase should be strong sell into the rapid stop of the stop-loss, or costly.

   Attention to the root zone “new” K-Line

   Like many people who do not accept the chart, I also had a lot of technology after the failure of useless things, because technology, recognized the need for a foundation, out of two-way to judge will result in the loss part of the time, tend to become a major Quotes little opportunity, if the miscarriage of justice from taking even one several times, losses are inevitable. To this end, I would push back, to revert to the most simple graph K-line and constitute the K-line on each of the transaction amount.

   Most of the transaction and K lines are neutral, there is no interpretation of the meaning, and only decided to change direction and brewing some of it deserved attention. Therefore, we need a concept to filter, it is the word “new”: new directions, new prices, new range, the new rates, new rhythms, new volume, and so everything’s new.

   When the word “new” happens, I will be highly sensitive and concerned about the root zone is very concerned about this “new” K-lines generated by high and low points, which represent the key unit of time within the two poles: one strong and weak forces brewing process of the limit of where the long-short, if immediate deduction in accordance with relevant logic, and the pole to break, then the breakthrough point, or appearance shall Admission signals; while the other pole will automatically become the correct position, as the wrong remedy.

   Identify the interest-bearing line

   The composition of all the technical graphics are the deduction comes from the K-line, and we removed the key to noise and find the attitude of conversion and the strength of money in the process of brewing Flanagan K-line core. This approach lies at the core to simplify, recognizing that it will be a holographic line, implies decide the future of some important information graphics and logical values, through its understanding and explained the logic, we can find the earliest opportunity, and will error limited to a range.

   While we stress the simplification of requirements in order to chart the basic unit of center, but not to weaken the major graphic to explain, just want to zoom in and attention to the basic unit of information contained in the.

   The above is my basic understanding that the analysis of the chart. Be pointed out that the “new” is not equivalent to “change” or “different”, which from an operational point of view of technical analysis required the use of persons, not to Italy, not to will, to see around corners, but it should not be attempted by the differences involved, to avoid falling into the trap of change.

Volatility and unpredictability of the most fundamental characteristics of the market, which is the basis of market exists, but also the causes of the risk of the transaction, which is an immutable characteristic. Transaction never certainty, all the analysis and forecast is only a possibility, according to the transactions carried out such a possibility is naturally uncertain, uncertain act must have to have measures to control the expansion of its risk, stop-loss Thus came into being.

Stop-loss of human naturally occurring in the transaction process, not intentionally produced for investors to protect their own kind of instinct, the market uncertainty created the need for the existence and importance of stop-loss. Successful investors may have their own different ways of trading, but stop it is to protect the Yi are the common features of success. World Investment Master George Soros said the investment itself has no risk of loss of control have the risk of the investment. Society Stop, Do not fall in love and loss. Stop-loss than a profit important, because any time the capital preservation is the first one, the profit of the second place, a reasonable stop-loss principle quite effective and prudent principle lies stop to prevent a loss continued to widen.

Why is so difficult to stop currency speculation

To understand the meaning of stop-loss is important, however, this is not the final result. In fact, investors did not set the stop loss abounds with examples of the implementation of the market, were forced out of the tragedy played almost every day. Stop Why is it so difficult? There are three reasons: First, the chance of psychological mischief. Some investors also know that despite the trend has been Po Wei, but was too hesitant, always like to look at, wait a minute, resulting in missed their stop-loss of good time; Second, frequent fluctuations in prices will make investors hesitant to undecided, frequent stops will give investors the wrong left lingering memories, and thus shake the determination of investors to the next stop; Third, the implementation of stop-loss is a painful thing, is a bloody process is the weakness of human nature challenges and tests.

In fact, each transaction is correct we can not determine the status or error status, even if profitable, we are also difficult to determine the immediate appearance or the holders of wait and see, let alone in a fitted state. ]]> http://www.liteforexbroker.com/stop-speculation-how-the-exchange-rate/feed/ 0 http://www.liteforexbroker.com/speculative-foreign-exchange-transactions-the-ability-level-of-four-kinds-of-3/ http://www.liteforexbroker.com/speculative-foreign-exchange-transactions-the-ability-level-of-four-kinds-of-3/#comments Mon, 25 Jan 2010 02:37:08 +0000 admin http://www.liteforexbroker.com/?p=347 The first layer capabilities: Analysis – Trends – the direction of the ability
Require substantial technical analysis of the early study of the theory; the latter part of the practical need to constantly re-set sum up, this process is quite long, for how long depends on each person and their own work under the power of understanding;
The second layer capabilities: Design – profit and loss – ratio of capacity
When the study of knowledge can often determine the actual trend in the right direction, then you should consider how much you are willing to stop to keep your account secure, or guarantee you that if done wrong, every single Buzhi Yu loss of too more, we should consider what you possess this level of analysis allows you to see how many points of profit, a good design your own profit and loss ratio;
The third layer capabilities: the transaction – Order – decision capability
The first two capabilities are the most basic, and it is not very abstract and the ability to, as long as you can swot up, when you put the first two capabilities are built up, you face the real problem is the determination of the accumulation of capabilities, but also means that you not only to analyze the direction and the calculation of trends a good profit and loss, but also in this decision immediately after the orders really realized when shown the kind of capacity than the speed of the fast talking. Because it will not wait for you to discuss Quotes taken into account;
The fourth layer capabilities: patience – position – adaptability
When you have reached the first three levels, then you do a single right direction we need most is your patience, and a lot of time, you do in the right direction, but had just unlocked the cells, and the prices do not move, and only a small margin the sideways shock is difficult by this time, no open positions are not open positions are not that many times are small, after losing some points could not stand to close out, but at your open positions, the Quotes about the whole thing out of the dozens or even or two hundred points, you start to upset; and sometimes, after you have open positions, and business anti-go, you start celebrating, these are all wrong, because it relies on long-term speculation is not a fluke, because you do not adhere to your stop-loss position Even if you are lucky once, but you did not really built up this capability, so when you have the first three levels of capacity, then you should trust your judgments and adhere to your stop-loss, long-term past, you will have good.

Foreign agent, the preferred MG. Welcome foreign fans to discuss ~
Personal communication QQ: 1400920812
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Free Hotline :400-699-0212

Inevitable errors and loss of produce, do not blame yourself, it is important from learning the lessons and avoid repeating the same mistakes, the sooner you learn to accept loss, learning the lessons, the faster the days of the advent of profits. In addition, we must learn to control their emotions and not to make money and pride, they do not due to loss of an optimist. Transactions, the less personal feelings, the easier you can see the market situation and make the right decisions. A calm state of mind to face the gain or loss, to understand the transaction were not learning from the profits, but from the loss of growth, when a loss to understand the reasons for each, that means you Youxiang profit path step further, because you have to find the right direction.

● own worst enemy

Trader’s biggest enemy is themselves – greed, haste, uncontrolled emotions, there is no preparedness heart, excessive self, and so it is easy to make you ignore the market trends which led to the wrong trading decisions. Not just for a long time did not approach trading transactions are carried out, or boredom, there are no certain standard provisions of the necessary number of a particular volume of transactions during the period.

● Record the factors that determine transaction

Detailed record of daily transactions, factors that determine whether this was what the event message, or other reasons for trading decisions you do, do the transaction and then to analyze and record the bottom-line results. If it is a profitable trading results, that your analysis is correct, when the similar or the same factors again, your records of transactions made will help you make the right trading decisions quickly; of course, a loss of transaction records allows you to avoid repeating the same mistakes. You can not experience all of all transactions recorded in the mind, so this record will help improve your trading skills and find out what is wrong.

● Homeopathy operation, not to contrarian OK

To remember the old General Market: loss of part of the termination as soon as possible, profits will hold long positions on the long put. Another important code is not to let the losses occurred in the original site has been profitable, the sudden reversal of the face of market trends, instead of liquidation is not the case at no profit to make a profit position that had been turned into a loss situation.

● Do not be anxious state of mind to turn around and deal

The face of loss-making situation, remember not to rush to the opening of a new position an attempt to reverse emancipation, which often only make the situation become worse. Only when you think the original forecast and decide on a totally wrong circumstances, to settle a loss position as soon as possible to open a reverse of the new positions. Do not guess with the changes in the market to play the game, missed trading opportunities, better than a loss to produce a good.

● Each is a separate transaction

Never put two or more transactions linked! Remember that each transaction is a separate transaction.

For example, put in the 121.00 yen after 120.50 stop. 3 days later, after analysis, that the dollar will rise to buy U.S. dollars at current prices you can put the yen, but the price is 120.80, then, do not think that the last transaction in the 120.50 stop-loss, and now want to put it is not worth the 120.80 that must and so on down to the last stop-loss below 120.50 before the stock market. Such a link has not helped, and easy to miss the boat! As long as analysis, determine the transaction the market, stop loss, profit price, the market can be decisive.

  2, people. The foreign exchange market in the meaning of those who should have been three: that his opponents, referees. Foreign exchange market is a no enemies and no friends in the battlefield, when you put, your opponent is to call people.

  3, the price. Fundamentals with the law of value to explain the price fluctuations; technology were established, such as gold division, percentages, the trend line, and so a variety of models to try to reveal the price movement patterns. Prices have absolute and relative distinction. Determine your gain or loss is the relative prices. A reference to the price, you can not avoid time.

  4, the relationship between chance and necessity, determines the fuzzy characteristics of the foreign exchange market. Accordingly, our best approach is to accurately deal with problems and ambiguous in application.

  5, balance everywhere, you should be thinking of carrying out a balanced solution to the problem has always been on.

  6, with the general view of energy characteristics of the foreign exchange market will lead to a lot of problems solved.

  7, the foreign exchange market in the repetitive, most often reflected in the cyclical characteristics; Exchange continuity of city, most often reflected in the trend characteristics. Cyclical, the trend is undoubtedly there, and seems to find the truth from us recently. Period of time, the trend of space, perhaps with the with the time and space, you can keep pace with the concept of energy, we will be find the answer.

  8, we do not need to take into account the foreign exchange market in the study than people, time, price, energy, smaller yuan. Their own concept of universality, comprehensiveness indisputable geography should become the basic elements of the foreign exchange market.

  9, time. Five kinds of people can at least mention the time understanding: the nature of life gone forever felt the time: Newton’s absolute time of classical mechanics: the theory of relativity in the relative time; “assuming nothing else changed, then things back again to its original state, “the cycle of time; statistical mechanics an infinite increase in the entropy, with the direction of the arrow of time. One tan as long as human thought must be used in time; time describing things, changes in the human mode of thinking. Special emphasis on human beings so much time, but rather that human beings are more concerned about things at any given time changes. Things are obviously changing repeating itself should contain the time factor. Want to solve the problem, we must understand the most profound time in the role of development and changes of things. Who can say that the stock market was established in line with the movement time model, who can be the same as Gann once and for all solve the problem.

  10, the energy. Only the energy in terms of the universality of the talent and time and space compared to. All changes are in the world can be summed up as being in the energy space and time changes. Foreign exchange market, the smallest unit of energy should be in contact with the time and space. Energy may be the foreign exchange market we open the door of a key.

  11, I said that the trend is not the law, because as the continuation of the trend, the probability of continuation of this trend will become increasingly smaller, the trend is not whether it is useful and trends in the law are two different things, in the currency in which people attach importance to the reason why the trend because it is very useful, chances of winning a larger share of the two is certainly wrong in most people, I want to correct a few people, while the trend is not told me.

  12, if an ant crawling on a tightrope do not know at the end, there will always fall to the day, and when the rope at the end, so I think the trend is not the law!

The Bretton Woods Agreement signed in 1944, have sought to prevent the currency in inter-State to escape, limiting the international currency speculation, in order to achieve the international monetary stability. In this agreement, the gold exchange standard between the First World War in 1876 to dominate the international economic system. Gold exchange standard, the currency in support of the price of gold reached a new stable stage. Gold exchange standard system, the abolition of the old days, kings and rulers of arbitrarily belittle currency, inflationary behavior.

However, the gold exchange standard system is not perfect. As a country’s economic strength, it will be a large number of imported goods from abroad until it runs out of gold required to support the national currency reserves. As a result, money supply tightening, raising interest rates, slower economic activity until the recession. In the end, commodity prices hit bottom, and gradually attracted to other countries, Fun to ride a large number of buying goods in the country. This will be the country back into gold, until the increase in the country’s money supply and decreasing interest rates and re-creation of wealth. Such “boom – bust” pattern throughout the Gold Standard era, until the outbreak of World War I interrupted trade flows and free movement of gold.

Wind and rain havoc in several of the war, the Bretton Woods Agreement introduced. Signatory countries agreed to try to maintain their currencies against the U.S. dollar exchange rate, and, when necessary, the corresponding ratio for gold, only allow a smaller fluctuations. States to prohibit trade in order to obtain the benefit of depreciation of their currencies, only allowed within the range of less than 10% devaluation of the currency. Into the 50′s, the growth in international trade led to a result of post-war reconstruction and the transfer of funds generated by large-scale, which makes the Bretton Woods system established by the loss of a stable exchange rate.
This agreement was finally abolished in 1971, the dollar will no longer be exchangeable into gold. By 1973, the major industrial countries more freely floating currency exchange rates, mainly from the foreign exchange market on the regulation of money supply and demand. As the trading volume, transaction speed and price volatility in the 20th century, 70 years in the overall growth of the floating daily price ratio, new financial instruments gradually come out, market liberalization and trade liberalization can be achieved.

80 years in the 20th century, with the advent of computers and related technologies, to accelerate cross-border capital flows will be in Asia, Europe, America and other continents together into one time zone for the market. Foreign exchange transactions increased from the mid-80s at about 70 billion U.S. dollars a day shot up to 20 years later, today’s 1.5 trillion U.S. dollars a day.

The expansion of the European market

Vigorous development of foreign exchange trading is one of the major contributing factor to the rapid development of the Eurodollar market; in the Eurodollar market, the dollar is deposited in banks outside the United States. Similarly, the European market means the assets are held in the currency markets outside the country of origin. The Eurodollar market was originally formed in the 50′s, when Russia will be its oil earnings (dollars) deposited outside the United States in order to avoid U.S. dollar deposits by the U.S. government to freeze risk. This form from the U.S. government control of the huge off-shore U.S. dollar treasury. The U.S. government imposed laws to restrict dollar lending to foreigners. As the European market more flexible and higher returns, it is particularly attractive. From the late ’80s, U.S. companies began to borrow from offshore funds raised, after the market and found that the European market for holding excess liquidity, providing short-term loans and financing imports and exports is very convenient.

London was (and still is) a major offshore markets. In the 80′s, the Bank of England to maintain its global dominance in the financial industry began to pound the U.S. dollar as an alternative currency for lending, thus becoming the center of the Eurodollar market. London’s convenient geographical location (between the market between Asia and the Americas) also contribute to the local remained at the leading position in the European market.

We speculate that they also have a defensive foreign exchange process, before you make a single before doing a single, as well as have a lot of attention to every step of the unwinding point, to conclude my few years ago to do a single one, is usually arbitrary me to do a single Kuidiao all of the profits, it did put an end to arbitrary single, rational and address every single one will be my future operating principles.

Foreign Exchange Quotes variables as large, over-emphasis on discipline will result in rigid, I do not exclude a single inspiration, but inspiration for operation limited to short-term transactions, such as do middle and long-level transactions, transactions of non-compliance is not enough, here I am Some transactions disciplinary documents for reference and discussion.

Do single-ago:

1, is consistent and current trends;

2, do you have K-line form of technology stays;

3, it analyzed the “unbeatable trends” and “deviation from the rate” on-line indicators;

4, is analyzed weekly and monthly line of patterns and trends in indicators of invincibility;

5, plan to do a single amount is too large;

6, is to set a stop price;

7, is planned Opening price (in the case of a floating win);

8, is set to win only the price;

9, the next single.

To do a single post:

1. To a stop bit, strictly implement the stop-loss price, regardless of whether the future we’ll see this level was a single right or wrong;

2. Loss after a single open positions and never backhand, change their attitude after the analysis of the market;

3. Floating win Opening after the failure of strict compliance with “make 10,000 yuan is not going, to make the final a time-sharing must take the” remedial principles;

4. When the open positions with the enormous profits after the stock market to do immediately to prevent a single, calm state of mind after the joy of the market analysis.

Foreign agent, the preferred MG. Welcome foreign fans to discuss ~
Personal communication QQ: 1400920812
QQ Exchange Group: 45.40918 million
Free Hotline :400-699-0212